Monday, October 29, 2012
All of Those Polls
There's a new poll every few seconds, it seems, and all of them pointing in different directions. Assuming that all of them are polls of likely voters, it seems to me that the largest factor giving rise to the variations would be the weight accorded to the three voting groups, Democrat, Republican and Independent, whether or not they adjust for that factor. Sometimes the D/R/I split for a given poll is announced, and sometimes not. Frequently, however, along with the overall result (Romney by 1, Obama by 2...) the poll will also provide the split among independent voters. When that occurs, with a couple of relatively safe assumptions, you can figure the D/R/I split yourself with my handy dandy spreadsheet.